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Bitget Research: Strong Q1 Inflation Data Delays Rate Cuts, Football Fan Tokens Offer Wealth Creation Opportunities

Victoria & John
2024/04/17
Bitget Research: Strong Q1 Inflation Data Delays Rate Cuts, Football Fan Tokens Offer Wealth Creation Opportunities
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

ETFs have seen outflows for two consecutive days, and the sell-off in Grayscale's GBTC has not eased, with Bitcoin fluctuating around $62,000. Despite a general decline in altcoins, certain sectors and cryptocurrencies still exhibit wealth-creation effects and popularity. Among them:
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: The recently launched popular memecoins, new assets in the BTC ecosystem, and the blue-chip chains.
  • Top searched tokens and topics: Avalon Finance, Mocaverse, Paxos, and RWA.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Zircuit and Nifty Island.
Data collection time: April 17, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Yesterday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to the $63,000-$64,000 range after dropping below $62,000 and continued to oscillate narrowly. Altcoins remained weak, with their prices continuously falling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total net outflows of $58.03 million yesterday, marking two days of net outflows, with GBTC seeing a one-day net outflow of $79.38 million.
On the macro front, futures markets show a decreased expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts following Powell's comments on inflation. Investors now bet on only one to two rate cuts this year, expected around 40 basis points. Macro factors currently provide no positive impact on the overall cryptocurrency market. The market pullback continues, and despite the general decline in altcoins, a few Solana memecoins, such as MEW, have shown strong upward momentum, indicating a strong concentration of capital. Additionally, with the European Football Championship approaching, the football fan token sector is worth monitoring.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements — Recently launched popular memecoins (SLERF, MEW, and BOME)

Main reason: During the market crash, altcoins generally saw a weakened wealth effect, with large whale wallets and smart money sweeping the floor of some memcoins, leading to strong rebounds in popular memecoins.
Gainers: In the past 24 hours, SLERF rose by 4%, MEW by 36.9%, with a near 250% increase over three days, and BOME by 1%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • TVL and fund inflows in the Solana ecosystem: Solana ecosystem's TVL has surpassed $4.7 billion, increasing over 100% in the past month, ranking just behind ETH, TRON, and BSC. If capital continues to flow in, the overall ecosystem's token prices will rise further. Additionally, exchanges are accelerating the listing of Solana tokens, which indirectly affects the Solana ecosystem's TVL through the flow of secondary market funds from exchanges.
  • Future rise of MEW: In the Solana ecosystem, the newly launched MEW could potentially set new highs. With its rapid price increases, the token has shown remarkable strength during the market's rebound, doubling in value in just one day before its subsequent listing on OKX. Given the large initial airdrop amount, it is likely that the project has not yet profited from this asset. Therefore, the project may be motivated to pump the asset again to enhance liquidity and realize profits.

2.2 Sector Movements — New assets in the BTC ecosystem (RUNE, CKB, and STX)

Main reason: The BTC ecosystem continues to see new developments as the BTC halving approaches. The Ordinals founder, Casey, is set to launch the genuine Runes protocol around April 20th.
Gainers: Over the past 24 hours, Runestone rose by 8%, breaking through $5000 again, while CKB and STX showed relatively minor declines compared to other altcoins.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  • Updates from BTC core developers like Casey and other project teams: Follow the project team's Twitter, Telegram, and Discord announcements. During the BTC halving period, the Bitcoin ecosystem projects are very likely to share positive news. It is important to stay updated on the news by projects. The new asset protocol Runes is about to launch on the mainnet, which may lead to hype around the ecosystem.
  • Market attention on CKB and STX during the halving period: CKB, as a prototype project for the UTXO Stack, is highly favored and considered one of the best representatives of Bitcoin Layer 2 technology. Recently, the asset issuance protocols based on RGB++ has been gaining traction, bringing a wealth creation effect to the ecosystem. STX, on the other hand, uses a threshold signature algorithm for its token T. With the Nakamoto upgrade scheduled for the 15th of this month, there are speculative expectations in the market. Additionally, Bitcoin halving will introduce new changes, further reducing miner income, necessitating a thriving ecosystem to support the transition of income sources. Investors should monitor the fund inflows to the ecosystem to aid their investment decisions.

2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next — Football Fan Tokens

Main reason: With the European and Copa America championships approaching, the football fan token sector began to heat up one and a half months in advance. Despite the market downturn, this sector has shown resilience, with the leading tokens experiencing approximately a 10% drop over the past seven days, which is less than the typical 7-day decline seen in altcoins. In the last 24 hours, SANTOS increased by 30%, PSG by 10%, and other fan tokens also saw brief surges before pulling back.
Specific tokens:
  • SANTOS: The Santos FC Fan Token, based on BSC, represents the renowned Brazilian football club Santos. Launched on Binance Launchpool, SANTOS currently holds the highest market cap among fan tokens.
  • PSG: The Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token, a fan token for the Paris Saint-Germain football club, recently became the first validator on the Chiliz Chain. They have committed to repurchasing PSG fan tokens with 100% of their accrued income.
  • LAZIO: The Lazio Fan Token, issued on BSC, represents the Lazio football club and was also launched through Binance Launchpad. Its fully diluted value is currently $120 million.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

Avalon Finance:
The first lending protocol on Merlin Chain, Avalon Finance, has a TVL that has surpassed $140 million, with over 7000 users, making it the largest lending protocol in both the Merlin Chain and across the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. It also set a record for the fastest TVL growth in DeFi lending protocol history. Avalon Finance completed a $1.5 million seed round funding in March, with investments from SNZ Capital, Summer Capital, Matrixport Ventures, and others. Avalon Finance has launched a community airdrop plan with an airdrop ratio of up to 20%, allowing users to participate in early airdrops.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Mocaverse: A Web3 project under Animoca Brands, Mocaverse has announced its tokenomics. The total supply of MOCA tokens is 8,888,888,888, with 31.5% allocated for network incentives, 20% for the ecosystem and treasury, 1.5% for community sales, 13% for strategic partners, 10% for liquidity, 5% for operational expenses, 12% for the team, and 7% for initial contributors and advisors. Additionally, 3 million PARAM tokens will be airdropped to Moca NFT holders. After the token is officially launched, users can participate after calculating the potential yield based on the token price.

3.3 Google Search (global and regional)

Global focus:
Paxos:
The price of USDP experienced a sharp fluctuation, temporarily surpassing $1.50 and currently quoted at $1.12. Due to these severe fluctuations, on-chain liquidations were triggered, with over $2 million liquidated on Aave v2. Users involved in related projects are advised to withdraw their funds promptly.
Regional focus:
(1) Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH and Solana are trending in multiple Asian countries:
Yesterday, both ETH and Solana saw significant attention. On the Solana front, Zhu Su posted on social media: "Bought SOL at $135." Based on other content shared by Zhu Su, he personally believes the downturn is over and is exploring whether to start sweeping the floor. For ETH, there were several large transfers by whales into exchanges. A multisig address, 0xA97, withdrew 6513 ETH staked in Lido and deposited 5100 of them into OKX. Also, a whale transferred 5000 ETH to Kraken, valued at approximately $15.2 million.
(2) High interest in RWA in Europe, USA, CIS countries, and Africa:
Yesterday, the popular RWA project in the Solana ecosystem opened for airdrop claims and was listed on several exchanges including OKX and Bitget. Its token, PRCL, was available for claim starting at 8:59 PM (UTC+8), currently trading at $0.55. Additionally, the Perpetual Points Program leaderboard will be introduced next week after the first distribution of PRCL, which will determine the shares for the second community distribution of PRCL in the second quarter of 2024, leading to increased attention to RWA.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Zircuit
Backed by Pantera and Dragonfly, Zircuit is a Layer 2 zk rollup with parallel sequencers and AI-based security. The project's TVL has surpassed $1.1 billion. Zircuit's ecosystem has evolved to include features such as staking, cross-chain bridges, and an explorer. Users can receive airdrops by participating in ecosystem development and community interaction.
How to participate: 1. Go to the Stake page (https://stake.zircuit.com/) and stake to earn points; 2. Deploy nodes to earn points (https://build.zircuit.com/build).
Nifty Island
Nifty Island, which launched its public beta in January this year, is a game similar to Sandbox, also incorporating creative elements from Roblox and Fortnite.
The Nifty Island airdrop has already started, aimed at incentivizing community users with ISLAND tokens. According to the airdrop rules posted on its social media accounts, points are awarded based on the time users spend playing the game, the number of players they refer, and the relevant NFT assets they hold in their connected wallets.
How to participate: 1. Create a game account and start building islands according to the game guide; 2. Earn more ISLAND tokens by completing challenges or increasing island traffic.
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