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Bitget Research: Bank of Japan Announces Interest Rate Hike, Risk Aversion in Crypto Market Increases

Aaron & Tommy
2024/03/19
Bitget Research: Bank of Japan Announces Interest Rate Hike, Risk Aversion in Crypto Market Increases
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are very likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

The crypto market continues to pull back, with BTC and ETH breaking through the $65,000 and $3400 marks, respectively. The Bank of Japan announces the end of the negative interest rate era, increasing risk aversion in the crypto market.
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: New memecoin and RWA sectors
  • Top searched tokens and topics by users: SLERF, ETHFI, JUP, and CYBER.
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Renzo and Aptos Bridge (LayerZero)
Additionally, CZ has spoken out after a long time, supporting the development of Web3 educational platforms, making education sector assets like EDU and HOOK worth attention.
Data collection time: March 19, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has continued to pull back, with BTC's price falling below $65,000; ETH experienced an even larger decline, breaking the $3400 mark. Yesterday, net outflows from BTC spot ETFs reached $154 million, marking the first net outflow in two weeks and a primary reason for the market's continuous decline.
On a macro level, the Bank of Japan announced that the benchmark interest rate was raised to a range of zero to 0.1 percent from minus 0.1 percent, ending an eight-year negative interest rate policy. This move will likely lead crypto investors to adopt short-term risk-aversion strategies, increasing the overall demand for safe-haven assets in the crypto market. The market is expected to continue pulling back within the week, making it advisable to pay attention to pin bar patterns. If pin bar patterns occur, it could indicate a potential market rebound, and investors may consider increasing their positions.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

1) Sector movements — New memecoin sector (SLERF and ALITA)

Main reason: The significant market pullback has led the capital to flow towards small-cap new memecoins.
Price increase: SLERF and ALITA rose by 230% and 68%, respectively.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  1. Whale actions: New memecoins often have many early profit takers. Their selling could lead to a significant price drop in memecoins, making it advisable to monitor on-chain data. Once whale selling occurs, it often signals a loss for other holders.
  2. AMA narrative impact: AMAs for new memecoins typically signal the future operational direction of the projects. Price increases often occur during AMAs due to the announcement of new positives, suggesting that investing in related memecoins before or during an AMA could offer a greater chance for gains.

2) Sector movements — RWA sector (MKR and OM)

Main reason: Japan's interest rate hike symbolizes the continuation of a high-interest environment globally. This environment benefits RWA projects, as they can offer Web3 users products with higher APYs, leading to a continued increase in TVL of the related projects.
Price increase: OM rose by over 20% in 24 hours, and MKR surpassed $3000.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
  1. TVL in the sector: The overall TVL of the RWA sector has increased by $700 million in the past week, positively affecting the sector's fundamentals. It is advisable to continue monitoring the sector’s TVL , with particular attention to newly launched assets like ONDO.
  2. News impact: Pay attention to new product types launched in the RWA space, such as partnerships between project teams and large traditional financial institutions, which could present excellent entry opportunities.

3) Sectors to focus on next — Education sector

Main reason: After a long silence, CZ announced the launch of Giggle Academy, a free basic education project for everyone. This is expected to significantly boost the popularity of projects in the education sector.
Specific token list:
  • HOOK: Hooked Protocol is an innovative immersive edutainment network aimed at helping billions of people enter Web3. A project invested in by Binance, with a market cap of just $600 million, it has significant room for growth.
  • EDU: Open Campus is a community-driven education protocol and a leading project in the education sector. With a current market cap of $1 billion, it still has considerable growth potential.

3. User Trending Searches

1) Popular DApps

Jupiter (Token: JUP):
Influenced by the recent surge in Solana memecoin trading volume, Jupiter's trading volume has continuously increased. Additionally, Jupiter's founder, Meow, has stated that Jupiter will donate current and ongoing SLERF limit order and DCA fees to the SLERF presale participants. Investors are reminded that Jupiter is planning two more rounds of airdrops. It is speculated that in the next airdrop, interaction with the Jupiter Beta version's derivatives trading market and the quantity of JLP held may become key criteria for the airdrop.

2) Twitter

CyberConnect (Token: CYBER):
CyberConnect has launched a staking program where users can contribute to the network's Layer 2 security and governance by staking their tokens. CYBER stakers will receive airdrops from Cyber ecosystem partners. The project aims to make CYBER a "golden opportunity" type of staking token, similar to TIA, where stakers can expect to receive more and more airdrops. However, whether this can be achieved will depend on the future development of the entire Cyber ecosystem. Those holding CYBER can stake it in anticipation of future airdrops.

3) Google Search (Global and Regional)

From a global perspective:
(1) SLERF: A Solana memecoin with a presale model which raised over 50,000 SOL tokens. Yesterday, a dramatic event occurred during SLERF's token launch: the founder accidentally burned the LP and airdrop tokens, sparking widespread discussion on social media. The burning of the LP and a large number of tokens quickly spread the narrative of deflationary destruction across social platforms. SLERF's price experienced a brief but insane surge, with DEX trading volume exceeding $1 billion in just four hours. Exchanges like Bitget, Gate, and Mexc listed the token on the day of TGE. While the Solana memecoin presale fever offers opportunities, it also comes with significant risks. Investors are reminded to make rational decisions regarding entry into such volatile assets and avoid chasing highs and lows.
(2) ether.fi (Token: ETHFI): The liquidity staking protocol ether.fi completed its airdrop and TGE yesterday, with the airdrop value being quite substantial. The so-called "low-guarantee account" received 175 ETHFI, equivalent to $700 at the post-launch price of around $4. The price of ETHFI post-launch has not been very optimistic, falling from an opening price of $4.2 to currently $3.2. Besides ether.fi, there are several other well-backed re-staking projects yet to launch their tokens. Investors holding ETH may consider depositing their ETH into protocols like Puffer Finance, Eigenpie, Swell, etc., in anticipation of future airdrop tokens.
From a regional perspective:
(1) German users have exhibited distinctive search trends:
Yesterday, users in almost every region were focused on highly popular projects like SLERF and ETHFI, with no other tokens significantly trending. However, the trending searches by German users included SLERF, as well as CRO, TIA, SEI, and MEITS. This may indicate that German users prefer more in-depth research, paying attention to narratives around modular blockchains, parallel EVMs, and decentralized sequencers.
(2) Some projects appeared in trending searches across different regions and countries:
MANTRA (Token: OM) appeared in the trending searches of the UAE, the Netherlands, Philippines, and India. MANTRA is an RWA Layer 1 blockchain, which saw a 173% increase in trading volume compared to the previous day, and its price rose against the trend. Arkham (Token: ARKM) appeared in the trending searches of Poland, Brazil, and Chile. Coinbase has just added Arkham (ARKM) to its token listing roadmap.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Renzo Protocol: A re-staking protocol that offers “quadruple benefits" + gas savings on the Mode chain
Renzo is a re-staking protocol based on EigenLayer, with ezETH as its liquidity re-staking token. Renzo completed a $3.2 million seed funding round led by Maven11, with participation from OKX Ventures, IOSG Ventures, Figment Capital, and SevenX Ventures.
With so many re-stake projects available, why recommend Renzo today? Let us introduce the concept of "quadruple benefits" + gas savings:
Beyond the Ethereum mainnet, Renzo also supports the Mode Network, offering a fourfold airdrop: Renzo credits, EigenLayer credits, Mode credits, and credits from DeFi projects on Mode (like Ionic).
How to participate: (1) Cross-chain ETH to the Mode mainnet; (2) Use Renzo on the Mode mainnet to obtain ezETH; (3) Stake ezETH in DeFi protocols on the Mode mainnet, such as the lending protocol Ionic.
Aptos Bridge (LayerZero): A "lottery ticket" in LayerZero
Aptos Bridge, within LayerZero, is a cross-chain tool between EVM chains and the Aptos chain. The recent surge in transactions through cross-chain bridges has led the market to speculate that this could be one of the criteria for future LayerZero airdrops.
Given the high ROI from Wormhole airdropping over 2000 W Tokens to addresses that had only made a single cross-chain transfer of SEI, Aptos Bridge emerges as an attractive option for engaging with LayerZero, akin to a "lottery ticket."
How to participate: (1) Have an EVM non-custodial wallet (e.g., MetaMask, Bitget Wallet, etc.) and an Aptos non-custodial wallet (e.g., Pontem, etc.); (2) Use Aptos Bridge (theaptosbridge.com) to complete cross-chain transactions between EVM chains and Aptos; (3) It is important to have APT tokens deposited on the Aptos chain beforehand for gas fees.
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